History: Skip Iowa at Your Own Risk

Plenty's been said about the Clinton campaign memo recommending that Senator Clinton pull out of the Iowa Caucuses. Although the memo was quickly quashed by Mrs. Clinton it made one thing crystal clear: the Clinton campaign (which is running third in the polls there) is in big trouble in Iowa.

So why not punt Iowa? One name: Al Gore.

In 1988, running against other Democrats including Richard Gephardt and Michael Dukakis (who won the nomination even after losing Iowa) Al Gore decided he wasn't going to do well in Iowa or New Hampshire. So Gore put all his time and money into that year's Super Tuesday. One problem, by ditching Iowa he took himself off the political map during a critical time, went on to do badly on Super Tuesday, and was finished.   

(By the way Gore did show up at the Des Moines Register's debate in 1988 and dropped a few choice words about Dukakis' revolving door furlough program for Massachusetts inmates, which George Bush turned into the Willie Horton ad that helped keep Dukakis out of the White House).

Learning from his mistakes, in 2000 Gore played in Iowa, beat Bill Bradley, and went on to win the nomination.

As for Senator Clinton while the bad news is she's running third in Iowa, the good news is she's running third in Iowa. Come January if she finishes second she beats the expectations and goes to New Hampshire with momentum, if she finishes first the race could be over quickly.

But if she passes on Iowa history says she's going nowhere fast.